Jasmine Paolini debuted on the WTA Tour in 2017.
At the start of 2024, her career best result in sixteen Grand Slams entered was the second round.
She had lost in the first round twelve times, and in the second round four times. She was a non-threat.
In this year’s Australian Open, she made it to the Round of 16. A career breakthrough.
One month ago in the French Open, she made it to the finals.
Come again? The finals?
Now, one month later, she’s in the finals of Wimbledon.
No she isn’t. No way, she can’t be. What? You’re kidding.
It’s a fact. She’s here.
Before this year, she had a 4-16 record in majors. This year alone, she has a 15-2 record.
What a ride she’s on. A ride that has also taken her to the world No. 5 ranking come Monday, no matter the result in Saturday’s championship.
Sometimes things are best left unexplained, and simply enjoyed instead.
The feisty Italian will face another surprise participant in Barbora Krejcikova.
Krejcicova has considerably better credentials. She won the French Open singles crown in 2021 and has won ten, yes ten, Grand Slam doubles titles with partner Katerina Siniakova.
She has been ranked as high as No. 2 in the world. She was No. 32 coming into this tournament, has already jumped to No. 14, and will be No. 10 if she wins the Venus Rosewater Dish.
Both ladies won their semifinal matches in three-set comebacks, but Krejcikova overcame the more difficult semifinal opponent in fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina.
The Czech has a 7-9 record this year when the tournament began. One more win and she can double her wins for the year, with a bright red strawberry on top.
Match Breakdown
Jasmine Paolini’s strengths are counterpunching and determined defense. She isn’t going to win any free points on her serve. Her height (5’3″) precludes that from ever being a weapon, so she uses it merely to start the point.
Paolini will want to get into long rallies. The longer a point goes, the more likely she is to win it, so she’s going to want to lull Krejcikova into a war of attrition.
At 5’10”, Krejcikova is taller than most players and that helps her generate power and reach difficult shots. Of the two, she has the biggest game, but power isn’t what she relies on. She’s predominantly a problem-solver who adapts to the demands of the match.
She can go up-tempo when required, play serve-and-volley, frustrate an opponent with steady defense, or hit big. It will be interesting to see how she plays in the early games before the match comes to her. That will tell us what gameplan she and her coaches came up with. Of course, as with any final, butterflies might stifle it anyway.
Krejcikova’s doubles skills work well on grass. She probably needs to come into the net at least ten times per set to keep Paolini guessing and off-balance.
Winner: Barbora Krejcikova
