(5) Daniil Medvedev vs. (3) Carlos Alcaraz
Same matchup, new year.
Alcaraz and Medvedev met at this stage last year when Alcaraz went on to win the title. That match was a three-set beatdown.
Medvedev learned from it, avenging the loss in the U.S. Open semifinals later that summer.
So these two know each other well, including on big stages with high stakes.
Medvedev knows he’s up against a video game-like opponent. “Whatever shot you hit, he can hit a winner from there,” Medvedev said about what makes Alcaraz special.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, knows that his pyrotechnics can and will be blunted by Daniil, a.k.a. The Octopus.
“He can reach every ball,” he said. “He is like a wall. I feel like I can hit an unbelievable shot and the ball is gonna bounce back.”
That gets mighty frustrating during a five-set encounter.
Alcaraz knows what’s on the line here: a chance to defend his title, and possibly do it in a rematch with Djokovic in the finals.
No moment feels too big for Alcaraz. He ignores pressure better than any player save Rafael Nadal, but he isn’t immune to it. No one is.
Medvedev is coming off a win over world No. 1. Jannik Sinner, as big a confidence boost as he could ask for.
And Daniil knows a little something about video games. He’ll find the right button combinations to beat the boss this time.
Winner: Daniil Medvedev
(25) Lorenzo Musetti vs. (2) Novak Djokovic
No doubt the surprise of the tournament on the men’s side has been Lorenzo Musetti.
Surprise, yes.
Fluke, no.
Musetti is simply in strong form. This happens with players. They catch a big tailwind, find something new in their game, their mind, their team, their life (Musetti is a new father), and everything clicks.
Let’s retrace his last three tournaments before Wimbledon.
French Open: loses in the third round to … wait for it … Novak Djokovic. However, he was leading Novak two sets to one before falling in five. That match famously ended at 3:00 A.M.
Stuttgart Open: lost in the semifinals to countryman Matteo Berretini—a not-so-shabby grass courter.
Queen’s Club: lost in the finals to Tommy Paul.
He’s trending upward. He believes in himself. He’s covered in whatever magic tonic the Italians are swimming in right now. He has the results to believe in himself. He has the perspective and newfound motivation that comes with fatherhood. In a word, he’s peaking.
Peaking players are always dangerous. His win over Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals was pure. It was a gutty, gritty, hard-fought battle against an in-form Fritz, which was the perfect warmup for his upcoming tilt against Djokovic. Every match with Djokovic is a battle. Every single one.
For his part, Djokovic has done what he has needed to do here. That began with making it to the starting line, a miracle in itself after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery during the French Open.
He overcame a couple early battles while feeling out his knee. Then he dispatched Holger Rune in ruthless fashion before getting a walkover in the quarters.
That walkover cuts both ways. It gives him extra time to rest and heal the knee, but it also takes the edge off his game just a little.
That probably favors Musetti to win the first set. Djokovic is a notoriously slow starter who often drops the first set, so that won’t phase him. On the contrary, he seems to prefer it. He feeds on challenges, and a self-imposed early deficit usually does the trick.
Musetti will fight. He has a chance. The moment and the opponent are probably too much for him, though.
Cue the violin.
Winner: Novak Djokovic
